Climate change has been profoundly affecting people’s lives as well as Vietnam’s economy. In particular, the coffee industry, one of the country’s strategic agricultural products, is facing many major challenges from climate change. Vietnam is currently the world’s second largest coffee producer, especially Robusta coffee, which makes an important contribution to export turnover. However, the increase in temperature, drought and extreme weather phenomena are threatening coffee production and quality, causing significant damage to farmers and the national economy. Let’s learn more about the impact of climate change on Vietnam’s coffee industry, adaptive coffee varieties, sustainability strategies, and forecasts for the future of the coffee industry in the context of current climate change.

 

 

The impact of climate change on Vietnam’s coffee production

Climate change is taking place more and more strongly and obviously, creating negative effects on coffee production in Vietnam, especially in the Central Highlands – where the most coffee plantations are concentrated in the country. Climate phenomena such as rising temperatures and droughts are becoming increasingly frequent, not only reducing coffee crop yields, but also making cultivated land scarce. A survey shows that many farmers have had to witness a significant decline in the yield and quality of their coffee beans in recent years.

Declining coffee yields due to climate change

When temperatures rise above the optimal threshold for coffee plant growth, phenomena such as yield decline become more severe. According to studies, if the temperature exceeds 30°C, the coffee plant begins to suffer from stress, leading to fewer and smaller beans and a decline in quality. This is really a worry for farmers, because they depend on coffee trees for their livelihood. Some notable figures show that coffee yields can decrease by 15-20% in the context of extreme weather and climate change. Summary of information on the effects of climate change:

• Temperatures exceeding 30°C will cause stress for the plant.
• Reduce productivity by 15-20%.
• Quality decreases due to seasonal instability.

This is not just a simple thing but a big challenge, not only for individual farmers but also for the entire economy of the country. Sustainable solutions and the ability to adapt to new conditions will be key to sustaining the development of coffee farming in Vietnam.

Loss of optimal coffee planting area

Climate change is no longer only a matter of yield but also directly affects the existing coffee growing area. With the increase in the intensity of phenomena such as droughts, it may become more difficult than ever to expand the coffee growing area. It is forecasted that by 2050, the area of coffee farming may shrink by 20% to 30% if climatic conditions do not improve. This means that many farmers will have to convert their current cultivated area to other crops, reducing their source of income. Factors affecting the coffee growing area:

• Increasing drought makes the land no longer suitable for coffee plants.
• Climate change leads to ecological change , leading to seasonal fluctuations.
• The need to convert crops to other types is more suitable.

Vietnam’s coffee industry is at an important crossroads; Without interventions, the coffee growing area will continue to decrease, causing serious damage to producers and the export value of coffee on the international market.

 

 

Coffee varieties adapting to climate change

In response to the negative impacts of climate change, the development and use of adaptable coffee varieties is becoming an urgent issue. Scientists and farmers are actively looking for coffee varieties that are not only high-yielding, but also resistant to harsh climatic conditions. Some coffee varieties such as Robusta have proven their strength when they have better drought tolerance than Arabica varieties, with outstanding characteristics such as:

• Disease resistance: Robusta is resistant to a wider range of pests and diseases, minimizing risks for farmers.
• Ability to grow in adverse conditions: Good growth in less fertile soil and high temperatures.

Robusta coffee varieties and resistance

Robusta has always been considered a “star” in the context of climate change in Vietnam. More than 93% of the world’s Robusta coffee production comes from Vietnam, with better resistance to harsh weather than Arabica coffee varieties. This brings not only good quality but also stability in production. Recent research shows that Robusta varieties such as “green dwarf” and “Truong Son 5” (TS5) are superior choices, contributing to preventing the spread of diseases. Outstanding features of the Robusta coffee variety:

• Good resistance: Avoid a variety of pests and diseases, ensure high yields.
• Growth potential: Can grow in a variety of harsh soil and climate conditions.
• Higher profitability: Helps farmers stabilize their long-term income.

The selection and development of new Robusta varieties will help Vietnam’s coffee industry gradually adapt to climate change, ensure income for millions of farmers and strengthen Vietnam’s position in the international market.

.jpg)

Research and development of new varieties

The prominence of the Robusta variety comes not only from its resistance but also to its efforts to research and develop new varieties. Scientists at the Central Highlands Institute of Agricultural and Forestry Science and Technology are conducting experiments with many new varieties to improve their resistance to harsh climatic conditions. These programs are not only aimed at protecting the coffee industry but also contributing to the creation of better quality coffee beans. Information about new variety research:

• Improved robusta: The green dwarf variety is highly resistant to pests and diseases, promising stable yields.
• Building a sustainable production model: Combining new varieties and modern farming methods.

In addition, the application of sustainable farming techniques is also an important factor in maintaining the coffee industry in the current context. When farmers know how to apply these methods, their yields will improve, and their income will also constantly increase.

 

 

Sustainable strategy for Vietnam’s coffee industry

To meet the challenges of climate change, Vietnam’s coffee industry needs to have a clear sustainable development strategy. The use of drought-tolerant varieties and the application of modern farming methods are essential. In particular, the regenerative agriculture model is being encouraged to be used, in order to conserve and restore soil and water ecology.

Regenerative agriculture model

The regenerative agriculture model not only focuses on protecting the environment but also aims to create high-quality agricultural products and ensure income for farmers. Farming methods such as intercropping, using organic fertilizers, and saving water play a huge role in improving the yield of coffee plants. The application of this model has helped many farmers to protect their crops and increase their income at the same time. Benefits of the regenerative agriculture model:

• Improve soil quality: Increase fertility, help coffee plants grow well.
• Water conservation: Reduce water waste, avoid drought for the next season.
• Ensure plant nutrition: Use organic fertilizers to help plants grow healthy.

Nestlé’s NESCAFÉ Plan is also one of the best examples of how this model can be applied in Vietnam, contributing to reducing the climate damage that farmers are facing.

Measures to respond to climate change

Climate change not only impacts production, but also creates a challenging environment for farmers, forcing them to look for countermeasures. These measures are necessary not only to protect coffee plants but also to ensure sustainable development for the industry. Some notable measures include:

• Research and development of drought-tolerant coffee varieties, a bridge between science and technology and practice.
• Applying economical irrigation technology, reducing water costs and labor.
• Transfer science and technology to farmers, ensuring they have the tools and knowledge to respond effectively.

 

 

The Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Coffee Industry

Climate change does not only affect the environment but also has a profound impact on the economic sector, especially for the coffee industry – the main source of income for millions of farmers. When production decreases, prices in the market will also be under pressure and millions of households may fall into a difficult situation.

Economic losses for coffee farmers

The economic damage from climate change is not only reflected in the decline in production but also through the instability of farmers’ annual incomes. According to a report, economic losses due to climate change could reach $10 billion by 2020, or 3.2% of GDP. Without timely response solutions, Vietnam could lose about 12-14.5% of its annual GDP by 2050. Survey of damage in rural areas:

• Reduced income by 15-30% due to lower output.
• Increase production costs due to the application of natural disaster prevention measures.
• Loss of competitiveness in the export market.

These losses pose a difficult problem for farmers and the government in finding sustainable solutions to maintain income for coffee growers.

Assessment of the impact on coffee exports

Coffee exports are one of the important sources of revenue for Vietnam’s economy. However, the impacts of climate change may reduce the competitiveness of Vietnamese coffee in the international market. As quality and output decline, some major markets such as Europe and the US may turn to sourcing elsewhere. Forecast of impact on coffee exports:

• Production will decrease by 20-30% in the coming years.
• The export value of coffee may decrease by 5-10%, causing difficulties for farmers.
• Vietnamese coffee brands can be seriously affected in the eyes of the world.

To solve this problem, a strong recovery from production to business is needed, along with support from the authorities.

 

 

Comparison between Arabica and Robusta coffee under the impact of climate change

The impact of climate change on the two types of Arabica and Robusta coffee is not the same. Although both are affected, the level of impact is markedly different. Arabica is facing greater challenges due to increasingly harsh environmental conditions. This requires a deeper look at the tolerance and responsiveness of each variety.

Disease Resistance and Yield of Robusta Coffee

Robusta coffee stands out for its better disease resistance and higher yield than Arabica. According to the figures, the yield of Robusta can reach 2-12 kg per plant per crop, while Arabica is only 1-5 kg. Moreover, Robusta is quite resilient to common diseases, creating conditions for stable growth even in harsh climatic conditions. Highlights about Robusta coffee:

• Good resistance: Robusta is more resistant to fungi and pests.
• Stable yield: High levels can be achieved even in mild climates.
• Drought resistance: Robusta can survive in dry environments better than Arabica.

The affirmation and development of Robusta varieties will be an important key to the sustainable development of Vietnamese coffee.

The future of Arabica coffee in the context of climate change

In the context of climate change, the future of Arabica coffee in Vietnam faces many major challenges. With the climate decreasing for Arabica, it not only affects the yield but also the quality of the grain. The study shows that when the temperature exceeds the permissible threshold, the percentage of coffee beans can decrease significantly, increasing the risk of disruption of the standardized supply chain. Challenges to overcome:

• Reduced productivity due to adverse environmental conditions.
• The quality of the seeds is not guaranteed, affecting the product image in the international market.
• The risk of major financial losses for Arabica farmers.

Response strategies need to be developed in a coordinated manner, from seed research to supporting farmers to access new technologies and long-term development plans.

 

 

Government policies and support

Fully aware of the impact of climate change on the coffee industry, the Vietnamese government is implementing many programs and policies to support farmers. This is not only to protect the coffee industry but also to create sustainable development for agriculture in general.

Farmer Support Programs

The government has implemented many policies to support farmers, including education on sustainable farming and encouraging the adoption of new technologies. These programs not only focus on improving productivity but also conserving natural resources. For example, agricultural cooperative programs are being encouraged to help farmers reduce production costs and increase competitiveness. Programs that have been implemented:

• Support training for farmers on new farming methods.
• The technology transfer program helps farmers apply advanced techniques to production.
• Encourage cooperatives to improve production efficiency.

The combination of the government and farmers will be a decisive factor in the recovery of Vietnam’s coffee industry against the challenges of climate change.

Investing in sustainable technology

An important part of the state’s policy is to invest in sustainable technology measures to save the coffee industry. The research of farming technology, the use of agricultural production management software, and investment in infrastructure will help farmers save time and costs, thereby improving productivity and income. Some of the investment fields include:

• Irrigation system improvement: Using drip irrigation technology while applying automation system.
• Sustainable plant variety research: Offering coffee varieties that are resistant to different weather conditions.
• Smart environmental management: Use measures to protect water and soil resources.

These efforts not only promote the coffee industry, but also bring long-term benefits to the farming community.

 

 

Forecasting the future of Vietnam’s coffee industry in the face of climate change

In order for Vietnam’s coffee industry to survive and develop sustainably, the government and farmers need to clearly identify appropriate directions in the coming time. A strong development strategy will need to be built on the foundation of research and innovation, thereby helping the coffee industry not only recover but also return to the top.

Coffee consumption trends and market changes

The global coffee market is experiencing strong fluctuations, especially in the context of consumption changing in a more positive direction with environmentally friendly products. The increase in demand from developed countries creates opportunities for Vietnam to expand its export market, as long as the products meet strict international standards. Forecast of coffee consumption trends:

• Demand growth from major markets such as Europe and North America.
• Changing product selection criteria: Consumers are increasingly preferring clean and organic coffee products.
• Promoting the export of high-quality coffee will contribute to improving the value and prestige of Vietnamese coffee in the international arena.

The coffee industry will need to work more closely to meet this reality, and adjust production plans and processing processes more accordingly.

The resilience of Vietnam’s coffee industry

One of the key issues for Vietnam’s coffee industry to recover and develop under the pressure of climate change is adaptability. Farmers should be encouraged to adopt sustainable farming techniques and combine them with scientific progress to sustain their income. Factors needed for resilience:

• Financial support for farmers to help them with the ability to make technical transitions.
• Improve the knowledge level of farmers through intensive training programs on modern farming techniques.
• Accompanying scientists and investors to develop new solutions.

Investing in technology and education will not only help improve productivity but also create a solid foundation for the future of the coffee industry.

In conclusion, Vietnam’s coffee industry is facing great challenges from climate change, but also creates opportunities for innovation and development. The application of sustainable farming models, research on new plant varieties and the application of modern technology will help farmers face this hardship. The government and relevant organizations need to support farmers in adaptation and sustainable development. The coffee industry not only contributes to the national economy but also maintains the image of Vietnamese coffee in the international arena. Only when we all act together can the coffee industry recover and develop sustainably in the future.

 

 

Contact Information

DQ AGRI Import-Export Joint Stock Company

Address: 5th Floor, Pax Sky Building, 34A Pham Ngoc Thach, Vo Thi Sau Ward, District 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Phone: 0979 112 997

Email: dqcoffee@dqagri.com.vn

Website: https://dqcoffee.vn/